Casino Hold 'em Poker
Introduction
Casino Hold 'Em is a poker variation, similar to Texas Hold 'Em, that is played in many countries of the world.
The game also goes by the name Casino Hold 'Em Open. Under this name, the rules are the same except the player hole cards are dealt face up.
In normal Casino Hold 'Em they are dealt face down.
Rules
The rules are as follows.
- Play begins with each player making an Ante wager. There is also an optional Progressive Jackpot side bet.
- The dealer gives the player and himself two hole cards and three community cards face up on the table.
- Each player must decide to either fold or call. If the player folds, then he gives up his cards and his Ante bet. If the player calls, then the Call bet must be equal to two times the Ante bet.
- The dealer will then deal two more community cards, for a total of five. The dealer will then turn over his own two cards.
- Both hands shall be scored according the highest poker value of the two hole cards and five community cards.
- The dealer must have a pair of fours or better to qualify. If the dealer does not qualify then the Ante will pay according to the Ante pay table below and the Call bet will push.
- If the dealer qualifies and beats the player, then the player will lose both the Ante and Call.
- If the dealer qualifies and the player beats the dealer then the Ante will pay according to the Ante pay table below and the Call bet will pay 1 to 1.
- If the dealer qualifies and the player ties the dealer then both Ante and Call bets will push.
- The Progressive Jackpot side bet pays based on the player's final seven card hand only, even if the player folded or loses to the dealer. More on this bet at the bottom of the page.
Ante Pay Table
Hand | Table 1 | Table 2 | Table 3 | Table 4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Royal flush | 20 | 25 | 100 | 100 |
Straight flush | 20 | 25 | 20 | 49 |
4 of a kind | 10 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
Full house | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Flush | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
All other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Analysis
The following table shows the number of combination, probability, and contribution to the return of all possible outcomes under ante pay table 3, which I'm told is the most frequently used. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 2.16%.
The following return table is four pay table 4. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 0.35%. This pay table can be found at Internet casinos using Gamesys N.V. software titled "Casino Hold 'Em with Zero House Edge." As you can see, the "Zero House Edge" part is a misnomer. The player must pay a 10% commission on any net gambling win per session. A "session" ends after a period of one hour with no bet or 24 hours, whichever happens first.
The only pay tables fully analyzed are 3 and 4, because it takes my computer about a month to cycle through all possible combinations. However, assuming the player was following optimal strategy under pay table 3 but playing under pay table 1 or 2, the house edge under pay table 1 would be 2.40%, and under pay table 2 would be 1.96%. The actual house edge under pay tables 1 and 2 would be slightly less or equal to these figures.
Strategy
Unfortunately, there is no easy way to quantify optimal strategy for this game. I can say that the optimal strategy player will raise 82% of the time. So only in the worst 18% of hands should the player fold. In general these are when the player has two singletons in the hole that are low compared to the flop, with little or no chance for a straight or flush.
Side Bets
The only side bet I am aware of for this game is known as the AA+. It pays based on the poker value of the player's hand after the flop. There are three known pay tables, as follows:
AA+ Pay Tables
Hand | Pay Table 1 | Pay Table 2 | Pay Table 3 |
---|---|---|---|
Royal Flush | 25 | 100 | 100 |
Straight flush | 25 | 50 | 50 |
4 of a kind | 25 | 40 | 40 |
Full house | 25 | 30 | 30 |
Flush | 25 | 20 | 20 |
Straight | 7 | 7 | 10 |
Three of a kind | 7 | 7 | 8 |
Two pair | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Pair of aces | 7 | 7 | 7 |
House edge | 6.40% | 6.26% | 2.97% |
Pay tables 1 and 2 can be found in land casinos. Pay table 3 is used by Internet casinos using Gamesys software.
As an example, following is the full return table for Pay Table 1.
AA+ Side Bet — Pay Table 1
Hand | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Royal Flush | 25 | 4 | 0.000002 | 0.000038 |
Straight flush | 25 | 36 | 0.000014 | 0.000346 |
4 of a kind | 25 | 624 | 0.000240 | 0.006002 |
Full house | 25 | 3744 | 0.001441 | 0.036014 |
Flush | 25 | 5108 | 0.001965 | 0.049135 |
Straight | 7 | 10200 | 0.003925 | 0.027473 |
Three of a kind | 7 | 54912 | 0.021128 | 0.147899 |
Two pair | 7 | 123552 | 0.047539 | 0.332773 |
Pair of aces | 7 | 84480 | 0.032505 | 0.227537 |
Other | -1 | 2316300 | 0.891241 | -0.891241 |
Total | 2598960 | 1 | -0.064023 |
Progressive Jackpot
The Progressive Jackpot bet shall pay based on the player's two hole cards and the five community cards only. It does not matter whether or not the player folds or loses to the dealer. In the event of a straight flush or royal flush on the board, all players who made the Progressive Jackpot bet shall split the win.
The following table shows the probability and contribution to the return for each event. Obviously, the return from the top two awards will depend on the jackpot size, so are treated as unknowns.
Progressive Jackpot
Hand | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Royal flush | Jackpot | 4,324 | 0.000032 | x |
Straight flush | 10% of Jackpot | 37,260 | 0.000279 | y |
4 of a kind | $100.00 | 224,848 | 0.001681 | 0.168100 |
Full house | $10.00 | 3,473,184 | 0.025961 | 0.259610 |
Other | $0.00 | 130,044,944 | 0.972047 | 0.000000 |
Total | $0.00 | 133,784,560 | 1.000000 | 0.487931+x+y |
The table above shows the fixed wins return 42.77% of the amount bet. Assuming the player is playing alone, for every $1,000 in the meter the return will increase by 6.02%. Under the same assumption, the break-even point is $9,503.22. Due to jackpot sharing, the return will go down slightly according to the number of other players making the bet.
Jumbo Jackpot
There is another progressive jackpot called the "Jumbo Jackpot." The following table shows the wins, probabilities and the contribution to the return for each type of winning hand.
Jumbo Jackpot
Hand | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
7-card straight flush | ? | 32 | 0.00000024 | x |
6-card straight flush | $5,000.00 | 752 | 0.00000562 | 0.028105 |
5-card straight flush | $250.00 | 40,800 | 0.00030497 | 0.076242 |
4 of a kind | $50.00 | 224,848 | 0.00168067 | 0.084034 |
Full house | $5.00 | 3,473,184 | 0.02596102 | 0.129805 |
Flush | $4.00 | 4,047,644 | 0.03025494 | 0.121020 |
Straight | $2.00 | 6,180,020 | 0.04619382 | 0.092388 |
Other | $0.00 | 119,817,280 | 0.89559871 | 0.000000 |
Total | $0.00 | 133,784,560 | 1.00000000 | 0.531593 |
The return for the top award depends on the amount in the jackpot. I can say that all the other wins return 53.16% of money bet. For every 100,000 bet units in the meter the return increases by 2.39%. At a jackpot of $1,958,300.75 the return reaches 100%.
Methodology
The above analysis was performed using a brute force combinatorial program that analyzed all 27,813,810,024,000 possible outcomes, and played every hand according to optimal player strategy. It took my computers about a month to crank though the 27.8 trillion hands.